J. Scott Applewhite/AP
On Tuesday, Democrat Tom Suozzi was elected to replace indicted former GOP Rep. George Santos of New York in a special House election widely viewed as a bellwether contest ahead of the presidential election.
Suozzi, who represented New York’s 3rd Congressional District for three terms before stepping down in 2022 to run for governor of the state, will reclaim his old House seat following Santos’ expulsion nearly two months ago. Santos’ brief career in Congress was filled with seemingly endless scandal: He now faces 23 federal criminal charges, including money laundering, wire fraud, and lying on congressional disclosure forms.
The lead-up to election night in the swing district was notably tense, with Suozzi holding a narrow lead in the polls against his opponent, Mazi Pilip, a Nassau County legislator whom Suozzi referred to as “Santos 2.0.” According to a recent poll from Emerson College, Pilip—a former Israel Defense Forces paratrooper—was more popular among voters on issues like Israel’s war in Gaza and border security; Suozzi was more trusted on abortion and the Ukraine war.
The special election comes after significant Republican gains in New York, a state that traditionally votes blue. In recent years, several New York Republicans have found success at the polls by taking a tough-on-crime stance. As my colleague Noah Lanard wrote in late 2022:
Nationally in this year’s midterms, Republicans mostly failed in efforts to weaponize rising crime rates. But in New York, they were remarkably successful. Heading into the election, 28 percent of New Yorkers ranked crime as their top priority—more than any other issue—in contrast, only 5 percent of voters listed crime or guns as their top concerns in a national survey that month. The year before this election, Republicans had used the same crime messaging to great effect on Long Island, where moderate Democrats lost in races they were initially favored to win.
