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I’ve been out all day with a mystery illness, but now I’m back. I think. I won’t know for sure until morning.

Just in case I’m not, a quick note: We’ll be getting the 3rd quarter GDP estimate on Thursday morning. Since GDP dropped something like 30 points last quarter, it’s inevitable that it will rebound by 20 points or more this quarter. Donald Trump is sure to call this the “biggest GDP gain in history” or some such, but obviously it’s no more meaningful than last quarter’s decline. Both are artificial results of government shutdowns and tell us nothing about the underlying economy. At this point, GDP growth isn’t much more than a measure of how much of the economy has been allowed to reopen.

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