Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 8 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through April 8. Italy continues to decline. The United States trendline hasn’t changed since yesterday. Germany is showing some acceleration and no longer looks like it’s close to peaking:

For what it’s worth, the quickest rule of thumb for estimating coronavirus deaths has always been, “We’re all Italy now.” Italy peaked on April 1 at about 13,000 deaths, which suggests something like 25,000 deaths by the time the pandemic subsides. If we’re on the same track but with 5.5x the population, we’ll suffer 137,000 deaths. However, we appear to be consistently a bit below the Italian trendline, so it’s probably more like 100-120,000 deaths. This is consistent with my read of the daily growth rate, but well above the IHME projection. I hope the experts are right this time.


How to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 34; total deaths are at 1,815x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 162.5 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is above where Italy was on their Day 34.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

REAL QUICK, REAL URGENT

Minority rule, corruption, disinformation, attacks on those who dare tell the truth: There is a direct line from what's happening in Russia and Ukraine to what's happening here at home. And that's what MoJo's Monika Bauerlein writes about in "Their Fight Is Our Fight" to unpack the information war we find ourselves in and share a few examples to show why the power of independent, reader-supported journalism is such a threat to authoritarians.

Corrupt leaders the world over can (and will) try to shut down the truth, but when the truth has millions of people on its side, you can't keep it down for good. And there's no more powerful or urgent argument for your support of Mother Jones' journalism right now than that. We need to raise about $450,000 to hit our online fundraising budget in these next few months, so please read more from Monika and pitch in if you can.

payment methods

REAL QUICK, REAL URGENT

Minority rule, corruption, disinformation, attacks on those who dare tell the truth: There is a direct line from what's happening in Russia and Ukraine to what's happening here at home. And that's what MoJo's Monika Bauerlein writes about in "Their Fight Is Our Fight" to unpack the information war we find ourselves in and share a few examples to show why the power of independent, reader-supported journalism is such a threat to authoritarians.

Corrupt leaders the world over can (and will) try to shut down the truth, but when the truth has millions of people on its side, you can't keep it down for good. And there's no more powerful or urgent argument for your support of Mother Jones' journalism right now than that. We need to raise about $450,000 to hit our online fundraising budget in these next few months, so please read more from Monika and pitch in if you can.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate