Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 12 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through April 12. There’s nothing special to report. Germany and France have probably peaked. The Swedish numbers, as usual, are unreliable because it’s a weekend. My best updated guess for the US is a national peak toward the end of the week, with different states peaking at different times. As always, this depends a lot on what happens in the states that have refused to impose countermeasures.


How to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 38; total deaths are at 2,402x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 215.1 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is above where Italy was on their Day 38.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

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