Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 10 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through April 10. Germany might be near its peak, but that remains unclear. If you remove a single outlier, France looks like it might be peaking right about now. The United States recorded 2,108 deaths, the first time the daily death rate has passed 2,000. However, this is consistent with the expected increase in daily deaths until we hit our peak.


How to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 36; total deaths are at 2,202x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 197.2 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is above where Italy was on their Day 36.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

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