Political Polling Is Still In Good Shape

Are political polls getting worse over time? Nate Silver says no:

He cites an exhaustive new study by Will Jennings and Christopher Wlezien, who say this: “Our analysis draws on more than 30,000 national polls from 351 general elections in 45 countries between 1942 and 2017….We find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the recent performance of polls has not been outside the ordinary.” Here’s an excerpt from the money chart:

This doesn’t show the 2016 presidential election, which was off by about two percentage points—well within the normal range. Too bad about that Electoral College nonsense, eh?

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REAL QUICK, REAL URGENT

Minority rule, corruption, disinformation, attacks on those who dare tell the truth: There is a direct line from what's happening in Russia and Ukraine to what's happening here at home. And that's what MoJo's Monika Bauerlein writes about in "Their Fight Is Our Fight" to unpack the information war we find ourselves in and share a few examples to show why the power of independent, reader-supported journalism is such a threat to authoritarians.

Corrupt leaders the world over can (and will) try to shut down the truth, but when the truth has millions of people on its side, you can't keep it down for good. And there's no more powerful or urgent argument for your support of Mother Jones' journalism right now than that. We need to raise about $450,000 to hit our online fundraising budget in these next few months, so please read more from Monika and pitch in if you can.

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