The Generic Ballot Is Predicting a Republican Bloodbath Next Year

I am generally a skeptic of the “generic ballot” question. This is the one that asks if you plan to vote for a Democrat or a Republican in an upcoming congressional election, and Democrats always seem to hold a big lead. But then that lead fades away, and in the end they either win by a small amount or lose outright.

But I have to admit that the current generic ballot is pretty impressive: according to 538, Democrats are leading by a whopping 12 points. And the folks at 538 claim that generic ballot results a year ahead of the election are actually pretty predictive: anything above 5 points for the out party translates into a big win in November. So perhaps there’s some genuine cause for optimism here.

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Minority rule, corruption, disinformation, attacks on those who dare tell the truth: There is a direct line from what's happening in Russia and Ukraine to what's happening here at home. And that's what MoJo's Monika Bauerlein writes about in "Their Fight Is Our Fight" to unpack the information war we find ourselves in and share a few examples to show why the power of independent, reader-supported journalism is such a threat to authoritarians.

Corrupt leaders the world over can (and will) try to shut down the truth, but when the truth has millions of people on its side, you can't keep it down for good. And there's no more powerful or urgent argument for your support of Mother Jones' journalism right now than that. We need to raise about $450,000 to hit our online fundraising budget in these next few months, so please read more from Monika and pitch in if you can.

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