Chart of the Day: Obamacare Enrollments Likely to End Lower Than Last Year

Here’s my latest estimate of Obamacare signups through the end of last week:

Signups on the federal exchange are 19 percent ahead of last year, so I’m projecting that total signups are also 19 percent ahead.

Friday is the last day to enroll on the federal exchange, so this week should be a strong one. I expect that we’ll end up around 6 million signups plus another 1-2 million auto-renewals on HC.gov. At a guess, that means total signups will be in the range of 10-11 million once all the state exchanges have reported in. That would be down from 12 million last year.

Some of this might be due to an increase in folks who are above the income cutoff for subsidies and can actually get a better deal off-exchange than they can via Obamacare (due to the intricacies of the CSR elimination). But most of it is probably just a reminder that sabotage works. Confusion, lack of outreach, and an arbitrarily short enrollment period have done their intended job.

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REAL QUICK, REAL URGENT

Minority rule, corruption, disinformation, attacks on those who dare tell the truth: There is a direct line from what's happening in Russia and Ukraine to what's happening here at home. And that's what MoJo's Monika Bauerlein writes about in "Their Fight Is Our Fight" to unpack the information war we find ourselves in and share a few examples to show why the power of independent, reader-supported journalism is such a threat to authoritarians.

Corrupt leaders the world over can (and will) try to shut down the truth, but when the truth has millions of people on its side, you can't keep it down for good. And there's no more powerful or urgent argument for your support of Mother Jones' journalism right now than that. We need to raise about $450,000 to hit our online fundraising budget in these next few months, so please read more from Monika and pitch in if you can.

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