Here’s How the Trump Tax Plan Will Affect Your Income

The White House claims that its tax plan will result in a $4,000 wage increase for the average family. This is obviously preposterous, but there might be some wage gain. The question is how big it could be. Luckily, the highly respected Penn-Wharton Budget Model just released a simulator that allows you to choose different tax options and see what effect they have on things like GDP, wages, etc. I went ahead and chose all the options from the proposed Trump tax plan and got the results. Current policy is shown in gray. The changes due to Trump’s tax plan are shown in red:

Don’t worry: you haven’t gone color blind. There are no differences. The model predicts that if you implement the whole plan, total labor income won’t change by a penny.¹

But what about deficits? Here’s what the model says:

That’s a cumulative increase of $7 trillion in the federal deficit. So the bottom line is that the tax plan doesn’t increase either wages or GDP, but does increase the national debt by about $7 trillion. Why are we doing this again?²

¹This is total labor income and says nothing about how it’s distributed. It’s possible that median wages will go down while the wages of CEOs will go up. Or vice versa. All we know is that the model predicts a total macro effect of zippo.

²Because it does reduce taxes on capital income for the rich. This might not have any effect on economic growth, but it does put more money in the pockets of the already wealthy. That’s what wealthy Republican donors paid for in the past election cycle, and that’s what they’re going to get.

REAL QUICK, REAL URGENT

Minority rule, corruption, disinformation, attacks on those who dare tell the truth: There is a direct line from what's happening in Russia and Ukraine to what's happening here at home. And that's what MoJo's Monika Bauerlein writes about in "Their Fight Is Our Fight" to unpack the information war we find ourselves in and share a few examples to show why the power of independent, reader-supported journalism is such a threat to authoritarians.

Corrupt leaders the world over can (and will) try to shut down the truth, but when the truth has millions of people on its side, you can't keep it down for good. And there's no more powerful or urgent argument for your support of Mother Jones' journalism right now than that. We need to raise about $450,000 to hit our online fundraising budget in these next few months, so please read more from Monika and pitch in if you can.

payment methods

REAL QUICK, REAL URGENT

Minority rule, corruption, disinformation, attacks on those who dare tell the truth: There is a direct line from what's happening in Russia and Ukraine to what's happening here at home. And that's what MoJo's Monika Bauerlein writes about in "Their Fight Is Our Fight" to unpack the information war we find ourselves in and share a few examples to show why the power of independent, reader-supported journalism is such a threat to authoritarians.

Corrupt leaders the world over can (and will) try to shut down the truth, but when the truth has millions of people on its side, you can't keep it down for good. And there's no more powerful or urgent argument for your support of Mother Jones' journalism right now than that. We need to raise about $450,000 to hit our online fundraising budget in these next few months, so please read more from Monika and pitch in if you can.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate