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If you’re wondering why the stock market is doing so well lately, here’s the answer:

Earnings at U.S. companies grew at the fastest pace in nearly six years in the first quarter, the latest boon to a bull market that has stretched into its ninth year.

With nearly all companies in the S&P 500 having reported results, aggregate earnings for the first quarter are on track to grow 13.6% from the year-earlier period….Beyond the jump in growth, many investors have been encouraged by signs that the quality of the results is improving. That contrasts with recent years, when investors worried that corporate share buybacks and ultralow interest rates were juicing stock gains in the absence of business improvement.

It’s not Trumpmania, it’s just old-fashioned earnings growth. More people are buying stuff and companies are making more money. It’s simple.

How long will this last? I don’t know any more than anyone else, but my guess is that the current expansion has another year to go. I’m starting to see signs of an economy that’s getting a little too exuberant, and I suspect that 2018 is going to be a mild recession year. Please note that this prediction is worth every cent you paid for it.

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AN IMPORTANT UPDATE

We’re falling behind our online fundraising goals and we can’t sustain coming up short on donations month after month. Perhaps you’ve heard? It is impossibly hard in the news business right now, with layoffs intensifying and fancy new startups and funding going kaput.

The crisis facing journalism and democracy isn’t going away anytime soon. And neither is Mother Jones, our readers, or our unique way of doing in-depth reporting that exists to bring about change.

Which is exactly why, despite the challenges we face, we just took a big gulp and joined forces with the Center for Investigative Reporting, a team of ace journalists who create the amazing podcast and public radio show Reveal.

If you can part with even just a few bucks, please help us pick up the pace of donations. We simply can’t afford to keep falling behind on our fundraising targets month after month.

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