The Person Who Cares Most About Barack Obama’s Approval Rating is Hillary Clinton

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Peter Beinart thinks President Obama is due for a comeback. Paul Waldman agrees:

I think Beinart is probably right, and the economy is the main reason; it swamps every other consideration in evaluating the president. We could have some major shock that upends the momentum it has been gaining, but if things proceed for the next two years on the trajectory they’re on, the Obama presidency will be one of the best for job creation in recent history. But it’s also important to understand that an Obama revival, should it happen, is going to look different than that of other presidents.

In this case, “look different” means that even in the best case Obama will end his presidency with approval ratings in the mid-50s, but no higher. The country is just too polarized to produce anything better. Conservatives of nearly all stripes are going to disapprove of Obama come hell or high water, and that puts a ceiling on how high his approval rating can go. Ditto for any other president these days.

But it’s true that the economy seems to be doing pretty well these days, and it’s usually the economy that drives approval ratings. That’s good news for Obama, but it’s far better news for Hillary Clinton. For Obama, leaving office with a strong economy is nice for his legacy, but that’s about it. For Hillary, it almost certainly means the difference between winning and losing the presidency. If the economy is sluggish or worse in 2016, there’s simply no way she overcomes voter fatigue toward Democratic rule. But if the economy is ticking along strongly, she just might.

So that’s that. The person who cares most about Obama’s approval rating isn’t Barack Obama. It’s Hillary Clinton. It’s the tailwind she needs if she wants to become the first woman to occupy the Oval Office.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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