Immigration Reform Is Dead, and That’s Still a Big Problem for the Republican Party


I got into an email argument with Greg Sargent yesterday over my belief that immigration reform has been “dead” for months and remains dead following Eric Cantor’s primary defeat. His view is a little more nuanced: it could pass anytime John Boehner allows it to come up for a vote, so it’s not really right to simply call it dead. As it happens, that strikes me as a distinction with barely a difference. The bulk of the Republican Party is dead set against immigration reform, and no party leader is going to buck that. In every practical, political sense, then, it’s dead. And since this is my blog, I get the last word.

However, one of the fundamental issues here is the size and intensity of the pro-immigration wing of the GOP. This includes business interests, law enforcement, evangelicals, etc., and my take is that they have neither size nor, especially, intensity on this issue. That’s why immigration reform has gone nowhere. But there is one other pro-immigration faction that matters: the party establishment, which believes that unless they do something to win back a share of the Latino vote, they’re doomed forever in presidential contests. But how scared are they of this? And how scared should they be?

A new report from the Center for American Progress suggests they’re pretty justified in being scared. Immigration reform is an especially salient voting topic for first- and second-generation immigrants, and that group has two important characteristics: (a) it’s growing as a share of the Latino population, and (b) it’s turning out to vote in ever higher numbers:

Republicans may be able to hold onto Congress for a while longer in the face of numbers like these, but winning the presidency is going to get harder and harder. Not impossible. But that’s a mighty big headwind, and it’s getting stronger every year.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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