Chart of the Day: The Afghanistan Surge Didn’t Work

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On purely military terms, the 2007 surge in Iraq was pretty successful. But as a lot of people pointed out at the time, that success was due to more than just the surge itself. A lot of it was due to specific local conditions, which I usually added together and called The Four S’s (Surge, Sadr, Sectarian cleansing, and Sunni awakening). Those additional conditions never existed in Afghanistan, which made the surge there a lot more difficult.

So with the Afghanistan surge now over, how did it work? As Spencer Ackerman reports, by the military’s own metrics, it hasn’t. Insurgent attacks are down slightly compared to last year, but they’re still way up compared to 2009, the year before President Obama doubled our troop presence there:

The chart [below, with red line added] measures the various attacks the Taliban and associated insurgents launched against NATO forces, month by month. In August 2009, the peak of the fighting season and the height of the internal Obama administration debate over a troop surge, insurgents attacked U.S. and allied troops — using small-arms fire, homemade bombs, mortars and more — approximately 2,700 times. In August 2012, they attacked just shy of 3,000 times.

In August 2009, insurgents used just under 600 homemade bombs on U.S.-aligned forces. They used just over 600 homemade bombs on U.S.-aligned forces in August 2012.

The same trend holds for every other month in 2009 compared to every month in 2012 for which there is data: The insurgency launched more attacks this year. In some cases, substantially more: insurgents attacked about 2,000 times in July 2009 and a shade over 3,000 times in July 2012. ISAF registered about 475 attacks from homemade bombs in July 2009; and about 625 in July 2012.

Perhaps Obama should take a hint from Apple CEO Tim Cook, who said today that he is “extremely sorry” for subjecting his customers to a new, bug-ridden maps app. Obama ought to be sorry too.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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