On Second Thought, Maybe California Doesn’t Matter After All

Fight disinformation. Get a daily recap of the facts that matter. Sign up for the free Mother Jones newsletter.


Just a quick update: a few days ago I suggested that California might be fertile territory for Rick Santorum because California Republicans are pretty hardcore conservatives. And they are. Nevertheless, Conor Friedersdorf points out that our delegate apportionment rules work pretty heavily in Romney’s favor:

Perhaps he’s right. I’d never have predicted Santorum would get this far. Still, I’m willing to buy Drum lunch at Orange County’s finest purveyor of tacos if Santorum wins more California delegates than Romney. The vast majority of Golden State delegates (159, to be exact) are apportioned by congressional district. Each district has three delegates, and it’s winner-take-all within the district.

Click the link to read the rest, but the takeaway is pretty simple: Santorum might well win in the roughly one-third of California’s congressional districts (mostly inland and in Northern California) that are solidly right-wing, but he won’t do so well in, say, congressional districts in the Bay Area that have smaller numbers of Republicans but still get three delegates each.

So there you have it. Since I mentioned this the other day I figured I should provide an update. California probably isn’t as much in play as I thought. Conor, the tacos are on me.

ONE MORE QUICK THING:

Or at least we hope. It’s fall fundraising time, and we’re trying to raise $250,000 to help fund Mother Jones’ journalism during a shorter than normal three-week push.

If you’re reading this, a fundraising pitch at the bottom of an article, you must find our team’s reporting valuable and we hope you’ll consider supporting it with a donation of any amount right now if you can.

It’s really that simple. But if you’d like to read a bit more, our membership lead, Brian Hiatt, has a post for you highlighting some of our newsroom's impressive, impactful work of late—including two big investigations in just one day and covering voting rights the way it needs to be done—that we hope you'll agree is worth supporting.

payment methods

ONE MORE QUICK THING:

Or at least we hope. It’s fall fundraising time, and we’re trying to raise $250,000 to help fund Mother Jones’ journalism during a shorter than normal three-week push.

If you’re reading this, a fundraising pitch at the bottom of an article, you must find our team’s reporting valuable and we hope you’ll consider supporting it with a donation of any amount right now if you can.

It’s really that simple. But if you’d like to read a bit more, our membership lead, Brian Hiatt, has a post for you highlighting some of our newsroom's impressive, impactful work of late—including two big investigations in just one day and covering voting rights the way it needs to be done—that we hope you’ll agree is worth supporting.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate