Balancing the Budget the Obama Way

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In case you’re curious, here’s CBO’s take on President Obama’s proposed budget. The light blue line is their “baseline projection” which assumes that all current laws stay in effect forever and the Bush tax cuts all expire at the end of the year. It shows the federal deficit nearly disappearing by 2017. The dashed line is their “alternative scenario,” which assumes extensions of the Bush tax cuts and a few other things as well. It shows the federal deficit improving a bit, but then deteriorating to 6% of GDP by 2022.

The dark blue line is the Obama budget, and it’s somewhere in between. But here’s an important point that you can’t see just from looking at the chart: Obama’s budget reaches primary balance in 2018. This means that federal spending is in balance, and the only source of the deficit going forward is interest payments on the national debt. At that point, the debt-to-GDP ratio is stable. That’s a big milestone.

The truth is that it’s not really that hard to reach long-term balance. If we simply sit back and do nothing, the budget would basically be balanced by 2015. Even if we just allow the Bush tax cuts to expire — all the Bush tax cuts — it would be a huge step forward. Since the economy will probably still be a bit fragile by the end of the year, my preference would be to phase them out over the course of, say, three years. Combine that with spending cuts that Democrats and Republicans have mostly agreed to already and we’d be nearly the whole way there. All that’s left then is reining in rising healthcare costs.

But then, that’s really all that’s ever been left. When it comes to the federal budget, it’s all healthcare, baby. It always has been.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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