Unemployment and the Stress Tests

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This is, obviously, nothing new, but Felix Salmon is right to remind us that the “adverse” scenario for Tim Geithner’s stress tests — that is, the worst case doomsday projection — used an unemployment rate of 8.9% for 2009.  The reality, though, is already much gloomier: we’re only up to May and the actual unemployment rate is 9.4% and still heading north.

One number doesn’t represent an entire economy.  But this one is pretty important, and Treasury’s forecasters weren’t even in the right ballpark.  It makes you wonder how realistic the rest of their assumptions were.

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This is no time to come up short. It's time to fight like hell, as our namesake would tell us to do, for a democracy where minority rule cannot impose an extreme agenda, where facts matter, and where accountability has a chance at the polls and in the press. If you value our reporting and you can right now, please help us dig out of the $100,000 hole we're starting our new budgeting cycle in with an always-needed and always-appreciated donation today.

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