A few weeks ago Arlen Specter announced that he would oppose the Employee Free Choice Act (aka “card check”), labor’s top legislative priority. But now that he’s a Democrat, what will he do? Jon Chait speculates:
Specter says he’ll still oppose EFCA, but I have trouble seeing him really maintain that stance. He has to make it through a Democratic primary now. That’s very hard to do in Pennsylvania when the AFL-CIO is out for your blood.
Specter’s most likely play is to stay formally opposed to EFCA, but support a compromise along the lines of what some moderate Democrats might favor. He certainly can’t risk being the decisive anti-EFCA vote. Democrats in the Senate may be offering him institutional support in the primary, but primaries tend to be low-turnout operations, and Specter is going to have to work his way into the favor of the partisan Democratic base.
I think that’s probably right. Specter won’t completely flip-flop, but there was some wiggle room in his statement announcing opposition to EFCA. Even without changing his position on secret ballots, then, I could see him working with a few conservative Dems and moderate Republicans to construct a compromise bill that pretty effectively boosts his labor bona fides. After all, the current version of EFCA is almost certainly dead in the water (and was likely dead before Specter announced his oppostion), so gaining support for even a watered down version would allow him to position himself as the guy who rescued EFCA and got half a loaf where there was nothing previously.
It might not work, of course, but it’s probably worth a try for him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give it a go.