On the Color of Swans

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Rotwang sez:

I’m tired of Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He isn’t as brilliant as he thinks he is. He may be a quant jock, but he talks about an idealized laissez-faire capitalism as if he’s never read a history book. Dude, this is the way the system works. This IS the system. The bubble bursting was not some unforeseeable event. It’s happened many times. Lots of people foresee it. They just don’t foresee the timing.

That’s kind of my untutored feeling too.  If an asset bubble followed by a banking crisis is a black swan, then black swans must be about as rare as black point guards.  Our current crisis is bigger than most, but it’s hardly unprecedented.

UPDATE: In comments, ack says:

This is completely and utterly wrong! Nassim Taleb has two independent arguments:

1) Due to a cognitive limitation, people tend to underestimate the likelihood of improbable bad events (‘black swans’). Therefore, you can out-bet the market by continually betting that bad events will happen….Taleb has even described the current crisis as a ‘white swan,’ and argued that it was totally forseeable.

James Joyner makes the same point at greater length here. Consider me corrected.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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