Cap and Trade Revenue

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This is from the budget outline released by the Obama administration on Thursday:

After enactment of the Budget, the Administration will work expeditiously with key stakeholders and Congress to develop an economy-wide emissions reduction program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions approximately 14 percent below 2005 levels by 2020….

I wonder what their economic assumptions are here?  Here’s the revenue timeline, starting in 2012:

At first glance, this strikes me as odd.  With only slight variations, it assumes $80 billion in revenue every year between 2012 and 2019.  But that doesn’t really make sense.  What you normally expect with a carbon trading program is that you begin with a high cap (carbon emissions in 2012 will probably start out 10% higher than 2005 emissions) and then ratchet the cap down every year after that.  As the cap goes down, the price of permits goes up.  It’s true that the number of permits goes down at the same time, but this shouldn’t be enough to make up for the higher permit price.  Overall, until the green technology buildout hits a critical mass, the revenue from the program should go up considerably over time.

But not in this one.  I wonder why?

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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